Catching Up with R.P. Newman

R.P. Newman is the author of the recently released Guerrillas in the Mist: Expanded & Updated Edition. He is a retired U.S. Marine, who is currently working in counterinsurgency in his fifth war zone (one conventional; four asymmetric) as a private military contractor. He has taken time out of his busy schedule to talk about his new book and the current challenges facing America in a world reeling from conflict and change.
 




Paladin Press: Since the release of Guerrillas in the Mist earlier this year, time and time again the headlines in the news have sent me back to your book to reread some of your prognostications or somewhat controversial descriptions of what’s really going on in various countries around the world I hadn’t read elsewhere. I have been amazed at how many times you were right. To name just a few: the nexus between Somalia and Minneapolis, how the predictions of democracy sweeping the Mideast as a result of the “Arab spring” were premature at best and more likely wishful thinking, how American  negotiations with Pakistan would result in more American casualties in Afghanistan, how successful Iran’s weapons-smuggling operations into Iraq really are. Did it surprise you how quickly some of these were corroborated?
 


R.P. Newman: No. I’ve been very successful in predicting intelligence realms for many years and, frankly, I would have been disappointed had these warnings, predictions, and assessments not been accurate. I do feel bad when I issue extremely explicit warnings about imminent attacks and the organization that owns the target does not react appropriately, which on more than one occasion has resulted in a successful attack, in some cases with total target destruction and great loss of life. 
 


PP: Can you discuss a few of these and tell us which ones you think are the most significant?



RPN: The so-called “Arab Spring,” which so many self-described authorities or experts claim is the best thing since the Colt Model 1911, and how the Pakistani government is directly involved in so many acts of terror, come to mind straightaway, as does the Mexican narco-terrorist insurgency and how it is going to continue to ramp up in dramatic fashion. All three of those will have dire consequences for America unless the American people turn off Dancing with the Stars, wake up, and smell the carnage.
 
 


PP: I know you have spent a lot of time working in Iraq among other places, like Pakistan and Africa. How will the U.S. withdrawal of all military troops from Iraq affect security contractors there? 



RPN: With Iran right next door and the Obama administration now admitting how serious a situation that represents, security will be an ongoing issue in Iraq, and most Iraqis understand that. The Iraqis suffered horribly under Saddam, as they have at the hands of Iran’s terrorist government on various levels. Iraqis deserve their hard-won freedom, and security contractors are just one part of the equation. Iraqi soldiers and police are attacked daily; many are my friends. They have true grit.  
 


PP: Is this the right move? Is Iraq stable enough to withstand aggression from Iran? Given your firsthand knowledge of the situation in Iraq, what are your predictions for the future of that nation? What about Afghanistan?  



RPN: No, President Obama made the wrong move, and he knows it, which is why he tried to keep U.S. forces in Iraq past 31 December 2011. The world needs to assist Iraq against the Iranian threat, not just America, but most nations have no interest in lending a hand to the Iraqis. Iraq’s future is up in the air right now because of this lack of support from other nations. I have many friends there, Iraqi friends, who understand all this. Insofar as Afghanistan goes, America has told the enemy when we will retreat from there, too, and Pakistan and Iran will both step in to fill that void. Only a fool tells his enemy when he will quit the field.  
 


PP: On page 300 of the book, you discussed Iran’s advanced weapons smuggling ops into Iraq, which was later confirmed by the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs in a CNN article. You must be pleased to have this confirmed by such a reliable source?
 


RPN: It is always nice to have one’s assessments confirmed by an unimpeachable source like the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs. He owes me now. Again. 




PP: A large part of Guerrillas in the Mist concerned the Mexican narco-insurgency on the southern border of the United States. I’ve read a number of incidents since then of more attacks in Mexico, and not just in the border towns, where we’ve come to expect such violence. In fact, just a few days ago there was a shoot-out between federales and cartels in Cabo San Lucas, one of the most popular destinations in Mexico for American tourists. Did this shock you? What does this foretell for Mexico and the United States?
 


RPN: Sadly, it did not shock me. I’ve been warning of that for at least three years now, although some people who present themselves as experts on TV stated this would never happen. Funny how they have all gone silent now. Mexico will continue its descent into the abyss. For the United States, this means more crime driven by the narco-terrorist cartels. Count on it. And some of these crimes will be stunning.

 


PP: One of the revelations in Guerrillas, at least for me, was that the Mexican cartels were operating in Honduras and a spike in crime could be expected there. We saw that come true in early November in a BBC story about drug violence in Central America. Is the narco-terrorism spreading to other Latin American countries? What should the role of the United States be to halt this in our hemisphere?
 


RPN: Mexico might take Honduras and Guatemala with it, which could be followed by Nicaragua and maybe even Costa Rica, Panama, Belize, and El Salvador. However, there are things being done in some of those countries to try to counter this trend. Time will tell. I am especially concerned for Costa Rica, which has no military. If Costa Rica does not get some very intelligent and capable counterinsurgency and counterterrorism contractors down there soon, well . . . The United States’ role should be one of aggressive and dynamic leadership, but that is not going to happen under the current administration. Sad. 
 


PP: What’s happened since the publication of Guerrillas that you wish you could have fit into it?
 


RPN: Timing of events in Egypt and Libya meant I could not fully explore what they mean. I warned many, many people about the unintended—but fully predictable—consequences of supporting those revolutions; that what followed Mubarak and Ghadafi could, and likely would, be worse. I warned that a military junta in Egypt would never tolerate a new constitution that could control them, and I warned of the deadly spread of weapons from Libya to other countries and regions and the terrorists therein. I warned of the rise of Islamic terrorism again in Libya and Egypt. All this has come to pass and will continue to grow.  




PP: What do you see playing out in Libya now that Ghadafi is dead?
 
 


RPN: An unelected junta now controls Libya rather than a single dictator. The self-appointed government there has direct terrorist links and there’s even a bona fide terrorist on the Council. Grad rockets from Libya have just shown up in Gaza and there are between 10,000 and 20,000 shoulder-fired SAMs missing. The tribes and factions are now warring against each other, as I warned. We’ll be paying the price for our stupidity and negligence in Libya for decades to come. 

 


PP: What actions should we be looking for on the horizon? Any more predictions you want to share? We can follow up again in a few months to see what your batting average is on these.

 


RPN: Watch for more lone wolf and other terrorists in the United States, Yemen, and Pakistan to get worse, as well as Libya and Egypt, Mexico and Central America to get even uglier, and actions against Iran unless an internal change there is brought about. In Nigeria, Boko Haram will become more deadly. In Somalia, piracy and terrorism will press on, and no one will do anything effective about it.